🔗 Share this article

Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.