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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."